Keywords Machinery Industry|2020-08-07 10:48:19|Source China Machine Tool Industry Association
Abstract At the beginning of 2020, the sudden new crown pneumonia epidemic has a major impact on the normal operation of my country's economy and society, and it has also brought an unprecedented impact on the development of the machinery industry. The production and operation activities of enterprises were temporarily suspended, and the main economic indicators of the industry fell sharply in the first quarter. Since March,...
At the beginning of 2020, the sudden new crown pneumonia epidemic has a major impact on the normal operation of my country's economy and society, and it has also brought an unprecedented impact on the development of the machinery industry. The production and operation activities of enterprises were temporarily suspended, and the main economic indicators of the industry fell sharply in the first quarter. Since March, under the deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council to promote epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, government departments have timely introduced policies and measures such as tax reduction and fee reduction, assistance to enterprises and stable employment, and machinery industry enterprises have actively combated the epidemic, Speed up the resumption of work and production. Especially after entering the second quarter, the order of production and operation has basically returned to normal, and the economic operation indicators of the industry have stabilized significantly.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, with the gradual release of macroeconomic policy effects, the machinery industry demand market will continue to recover and the operating environment will continue to improve. However, due to the large instability and uncertainty in the overseas epidemic situation and the increasingly severe and complex international economic and trade situation, the machinery industry is still facing greater downward pressure.
1. Overview of machinery industry operation in the first half of the year
Affected by the epidemic, the production and operation of the machinery industry suffered a huge impact at the beginning of the year. The main economic indicators fell across the board from January to February, and they began to stabilize in March. After entering the second quarter, the trend of stabilization and improvement has become clearer.
(1) The decline in value added has significantly narrowed
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the value added of the machinery industry in the first half of the year fell by 1.5% year-on-year, which was significantly narrower by 17.5 percentage points from the first quarter, and was lower than the national industry and manufacturing industry by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points in the same period. In June, the added value of the machinery industry increased by 9% year-on-year, 4.2 and 3.9 percentage points higher than that of the national industry and manufacturing industry in the same period.
Among the five major categories of national economic industries mainly involved in the machinery industry in the first half of the year, the added value of the special equipment manufacturing industry has achieved positive growth, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year; general equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, and instrumentation The added value of the manufacturing industry fell by 2.3%, 3.1%, 0.3% and 0.7% year-on-year, and the rate of decline was 14.9, 22.9, 12.6 and 15.4 percentage points lower than the first quarter.
(2) The production of major products gradually recovered
Affected by the delayed resumption of work caused by the epidemic at the beginning of the year, the production of 120 major products monitored by the machinery industry fell sharply, and the output of only two products increased in January and February. Since then, with the continuous advancement of resumption of work and production, enterprise production has gradually recovered, and the number of products that have achieved output growth among the key monitoring products has continued to increase. In the first half of the year, the output of 36 products increased, accounting for 30%; there were still 84 products with declining output, accounting for 70%. According to the data of the current month, more than 75 kinds of products have increased in output during the three consecutive months of April, May, and June.
The overall performance of the market situation of the main products of the machinery industry is: the investment product market recovers faster than expected! The recovery of the consumer product market has been slower than expected. Specifically: First, thanks to the restoration and start-up of infrastructure investment and energy construction related projects, the production and sales of construction machinery and power generation equipment have grown rapidly. In the first half of the year, the output of construction machinery products such as excavators, loaders, compaction machinery and concrete machinery increased across the board, and the output of excavators and concrete machinery increased by more than 20%. Second, the production of some agricultural machinery products recovered quickly. In the first half of the year, the output of large tractors increased by 33.51%, the output of medium tractors increased by 4.54% year-on-year, and the cotton processing machinery increased by 34.78%. The third is the recovery of product production related to new infrastructure, civil infrastructure construction and intelligent manufacturing. In the first half of the year, the output of optical cables increased by 6.25%, the output of solid waste treatment equipment increased by 61.25%, the industrial robot increased by 10.31%, and the industrial automatic adjustment instrumentation and control system An increase of 0.64%. Fourth, automobile production and sales continued to stabilize. According to the statistics of the Automobile Association, automobile production and sales in the first half of the year decreased by 16.8% and 16.9% year-on-year respectively, and the rate of decline was significantly narrower than the beginning of the year. Fifth, the recovery of passenger cars has been slow, and although the growth rate of production and sales has narrowed significantly compared with the previous few months, it has not yet reached the ideal state.
(3) The main economic indicators have obviously stabilized
In the first half of the year, the machinery industry achieved a cumulative operating income of 9.55 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.94%, continuing the stabilization trend since March, and the decline was 19.17 percentage points lower than the first quarter; the cumulative total realized profit was 555.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.09% , Which also continued the trend of stabilization since March, with the decline sharply narrowed by 49.49 percentage points from the first quarter; the operating income margin was 5.79%. Compared with the national industry, the decline in the operating income and total profit of the machinery industry in the first half of the year was 0.23 and 5.76 percentage points lower than that of the national industry, and the operating income profit rate was 0.35 percentage points higher.
(4) The main sub-sectors are still unbalanced
In the first half of the year, the operating income of the machinery industry and the non-automotive industry fell by 2.98% year-on-year, which was less than the overall level of the machinery industry in the same period, and was 16.91 percentage points lower than the first quarter; of which, agricultural machinery, internal combustion engines, construction machinery, robotics and intelligent manufacturing were operated in four sub-sectors Revenue has increased year-on-year. The total profit of the non-automotive industry has decreased from 39.98% in the first quarter to an increase of 2.11% in the first half of the year, which is 9.2% higher than the overall level of the machinery industry. Among them, agricultural machinery, internal combustion engines, construction machinery, instrumentation, heavy mining, machine tools, machinery The total profit of 9 sub-sectors of basic parts, food packaging, robotics and intelligent manufacturing achieved growth.
In the first half of the year, the operating income of the automobile industry fell by 8.1% year-on-year, and the total profit fell by 20.23%. Although the decline of the two indicators was significantly narrower than the beginning of the year, they were still lower than the overall level of the machinery industry.
(5) Foreign trade declined year-on-year
According to customs data, the total import and export volume of the machinery industry in the first half of the year was 344.2 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 7.84%. Among them, imports were US$138.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.54%; exports were US$205.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.37%. Compared with the first quarter, the decline in total imports and exports narrowed by 1.99 percentage points, the decline in imports expanded by 1.58 percentage points, and the decline in exports narrowed by 4.44 percentage points. In the first half of the year, the machinery industry achieved a trade surplus of US$67 billion.
(6) The boom index of the machinery industry rebounded
The development of the machinery industry prosperity index covers multiple dimensions such as production, investment, foreign trade, economic efficiency, and comprehensively reflects the operation of the machinery industry. In the first half of the year, the machinery industry prosperity index showed an overall upward trend. After bottoming out at the beginning of the year, it rebounded quickly. In June, it has rebounded to 92.8, an increase of 14.97 points from the end of March. Reflects that the operating prosperity of the machinery industry has continued to stabilize and improve.
Second, the industry's development resilience is highlighted in the face of the epidemic
The new crown pneumonia epidemic has brought unprecedented impact and challenges to the economic operation of the machinery industry. The majority of enterprises have taken the initiative, actively responded, and bucked the trend, showing the industry's development resilience.
(1) Active actions for epidemic prevention and control, and rapid progress in resuming work and production
In the face of the sudden epidemic, the majority of enterprises in the machinery industry actively participated in the fight against the epidemic. On the one hand, we have stepped up the manufacturing and research and development of special products such as negative pressure ambulances, masks and mask machines, and ventilation and disinfection systems required for epidemic prevention and control, so as to meet the anti-epidemic needs and ensure supply in a relatively short time. On the other hand, it quickly and efficiently organized and promoted the resumption of work and production of enterprises. The daily report data of more than 8,000 enterprises established by the China Machinery Industry Federation and 18 sub-industry associations showed that the resumption rate of machinery industry enterprises was less than 30% in mid-February to 3 It rose to nearly 90% in the middle of the month and exceeded 95% in early April. It effectively implemented the central government’s requirements for overall planning of epidemic prevention and control and the resumption of production, laying a foundation for the recovery of industry operations in the second quarter.
(2) Strategic emerging industries drive industry recovery
In the first half of the year, the strategic emerging industries in the machinery industry achieved operating income of 7.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.85%. The rate of decline was 1.09 percentage points less than that of the overall machinery industry in the same period. The proportion of machinery industry operating income was 74.4%. The same period last year increased by 0.85 percentage points; the total profit realized was 406.668 billion yuan, down 4.63% year-on-year, and the rate of decline was 2.46 percentage points narrower than the overall machinery industry. The rebound of strategic emerging industries has played a positive role in the stabilization of the machinery industry.
(3) Some industries seize the opportunity to grow against the trend
In the face of the sudden epidemic, with the support of relevant national policies, the machinery industry took the initiative to speed up the resumption of work and production. Some industries seized new opportunities in the crisis and achieved contrarian growth.
The agricultural machinery industry has been at a low level in recent years, and it was also greatly impacted by the new crown epidemic at the beginning of this year. However, it benefited from a series of benefits such as the country’s timely introduction of agricultural machinery retirement and renewal subsidies, conservation farming on black soil in the northeast, and the 2020 agricultural production development project. Agricultural policies and measures. In the first half of the year, the agricultural machinery industry recovered rapidly and the industrial structure was optimized. The output of large and medium-sized tractors turned from negative to positive, and the total profit of the industry increased by more than 30% year-on-year.
Benefiting from the accelerated investment and construction of power projects, the energy equipment industry continued to improve in the first half of the year, and the total industry profit turned from negative to positive, an increase of 2.88%. Among them, the operating income of the energy conversion equipment manufacturing industry, which consists of five small industries such as steam turbine manufacturing, water turbine manufacturing, and generator manufacturing, increased by 12.8%, and the total profit increased by 46.9%.
Driven by various construction projects, the growth of the construction machinery industry in the first half of the year exceeded expectations. The output of the five major products monitored by the industry all achieved year-on-year growth. The industry-wide operating income increased by more than 10% and the total profit increased by more than 25%.
(4) The momentum of R&D investment remains unabated, and the results of independent innovation are put into use
Under the impact of the epidemic, in order to seek long-term survival and development, machinery companies have unabated enthusiasm and investment in R&D and innovation. Statistics from key enterprises in the machinery industry show that since April, industry R&D expenses have turned from negative year-on-year to positive year-on-year. In the first half of the year, with revenue and profits still experiencing negative growth, the industry’s R&D expenses have increased by double digits, with 58.8% of the focus. R&D expenses of affiliated companies increased year-on-year.
In the first half of the year, a batch of domestic independent research and development innovation results were put into use. The first domestic 10-megawatt offshore wind turbine jointly developed by Three Gorges Group and Dongfang Electric Group was successfully connected to the grid for power generation at the Xinghua Bay Phase II offshore wind farm in Fuqing, Fujian. This is the largest single-unit capacity independently developed by China in the Asia-Pacific region and the second in the world. Large offshore wind turbine. The world’s first ultra-small turning radius hard rock tunnel boring machine independently developed by China Railway Equipment Group was applied to the State Grid Xinyuan Shandong Wendeng Pumped Storage Power Station project. It is the first time that China has introduced a hard rock full face tunnel boring machine (TBM) method into pumped storage. The field of energy power station engineering construction is a milestone in promoting the high-quality development of China's roadheader industry and the intelligent construction of pumped storage power stations. The first domestic super-large ethylene dehydrogenation to ethylene complete cold box developed by Hangyang with a total weight of 592 tons was sent to Lianyungang Petrochemical Project Base for use. The world's largest 4,000-ton crawler crane developed and manufactured by Sany Heavy Industry has successfully completed the lifting of the No. 4 "1500-ton" propylene tower of the Luqing Petrochemical Project, realizing a full range of domestic products to replace imported crawler cranes.
(5) Do everything possible to explore overseas markets
In the face of the new crown epidemic and the global economic recession caused by it, machinery industry companies have diversified to explore overseas markets and actively stabilize foreign trade. In the first half of the year, XCMG large-tonnage hoisting machinery was sent to Australia in batches, excavating machinery and road machinery were sent to North America in batches, and customized models worth more than 100 million yuan were exported to Southeast Asian countries. For the first time, Shanghai Electric Automation Group participated in the Makati Metro Project in the Philippines as a general contractor of rail transit electromechanical integration, marking that it has completed the leap from a single service to a complete project in the rail transit industry. This is also the first contract undertaken by Shanghai Electric Group. An overseas subway project is a major breakthrough it has made in exploring overseas markets. Dongfang Electric Group's Ecuador Reed Bridge wind power project officially fulfilled its contract, marking that its wind power project successfully landed in the South American market after landing in the European and African markets.
(6) Actively explore and develop new kinetic energy
In the face of sudden epidemics, machinery companies actively expand service areas, innovate service models, and actively explore new development momentum. Dongfang Electric Dongfang Steam Turbine Co., Ltd. and Everbright Environmental Energy (Jiangyin) Co., Ltd. signed a contract for the one-click start-stop renovation project of the third-stage steam turbine of Everbright Jiangyin, marking the company's formal entry into the field of intelligent power plant renovation. Shaangu Group and State Grid signed an energy comprehensive service strategic agreement and became a member of State Grid’s “Digital New Infrastructure” project. In order to cope with the difficulties in international communication caused by the global epidemic, XCMG has launched an “online business model”, taking the lead in hosting a global live broadcast of construction machinery in the industry, and using a new media live broadcast platform to promote Chinese construction machinery products to the world by industry leaders. Live "carrying goods".
3. Difficulties and pressure still exist
At present, the recovery of production and operation of the machinery industry has achieved initial results, and the difficulties and problems encountered in the early stage have been alleviated to varying degrees as the epidemic has improved. However, there are still the following difficulties and pressures in striving to achieve steady economic growth throughout the year.
(1) The economic operation situation of the machinery industry is still grim
At present, the domestic macro economy continues to recover and the market environment continues to improve. However, from the perspective of investment, consumption, and foreign trade, the economic situation of the machinery industry is still severe. In the first half of the year, national investment in fixed assets fell by 3.1% year-on-year, while the investment in equipment and tools closely related to mechanical products fell by 13.9%. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 11.4% year-on-year, while consumption of automobile products fell by 15.2%. In the first half of the year, national foreign trade exports (in US dollars) fell by 6.2% year-on-year, while exports from the machinery industry fell by 7.37% year-on-year. The rebound of relevant indicators of the machinery industry has been slower than the overall level.
(2) The problem of insufficient demand continues
Although the production and operation order of domestic enterprises continues to improve, market demand has not yet fully recovered. Statistics from key contact enterprises show that in the first half of the year, the cumulative order value of the machinery industry continued to drop by 5.4% on the basis of the low base of the previous year. Although the rate of decrease was narrowed by nearly 10 percentage points from the beginning of the year, it was still in a significant decline. A special survey in early July showed that more than 60% of the surveyed companies reported that the lack of orders is the primary difficulty encountered in the current production and operation of companies.
(3) It is difficult to collect accounts and enterprises have heavy burdens
As of the end of June, the total accounts receivable of the machinery industry had reached 5 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly one-third of the country's total industrial accounts receivable, a year-on-year increase of 10.39%, an increase of nearly 10 percentage points over the first quarter. The large amount of accounts receivable and difficulty in recovery have led to widespread financial pressures in machinery companies, and they have to solve the problem of capital turnover by increasing borrowing, thereby paying high interest and increasing the cost burden. Statistics from key contact enterprises show that the financial expenses of machinery enterprises in the first half of the year fell by 0.27% year-on-year, while interest expenses increased by 4.16% year-on-year.
(4) Weak industry investment recovery
With the gradual improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, fixed asset investment in the machinery industry has stabilized. In the first half of the year, the machinery industry was mainly involved in the major categories of national economic industries. The investment in general equipment, special equipment, automobiles, electrical machinery and equipment and instrumentation manufacturing fell by 18%, 12.7%, 20.9%, 17.1% and 0.5%, respectively. Compared with the beginning of the year, the rate of decline has narrowed by more than ten percentage points, but there are still double-digit declines in the investment growth rate of four major industries, and it is significantly lower than the national average level of fixed asset investment. The recovery of private investment has been slower. In the first half of the year, private investment in the manufacturing of general equipment, special equipment, automobiles, electrical machinery and equipment fell by 19.9%, 14.6%, 23%, and 18.8%, respectively.
A recent special survey shows that although more than 60% of the surveyed companies report that their investment plans will continue this year, the overall investment scale shows a downward trend. 48% of the surveyed companies expect their investment amount to fall year-on-year, 30% of the companies expect a decline of more than 10%, and 47% of the companies expect their investment amount to be flat year-on-year. It shows that the mechanical industry's fixed asset investment recovery is insufficient in the second half of the year.
(5) Pressure on foreign trade exports still exists
After stabilizing in March and April, exports of the machinery industry did not continue to rebound in May and June, and the decline continued at about 7%. The impact of the overseas epidemic on the foreign trade of the machinery industry is still continuing. A recent special survey shows that 64% of the surveyed companies expect overseas orders to continue to decline in the second half of the year, and 21% expect a decline of more than 20%; 27% expect the same; only 9% expect growth. The data shows that there is still greater downward pressure on foreign trade exports of the machinery industry in the second half of the year.
Fourth, the annual trend forecast
Looking forward to the second half of the year, the Party Central Committee clearly proposes to do a good job in the "six stability" work and implement the "six guarantees" tasks. Various regions and departments have introduced a series of policies and measures to protect and stimulate the vitality of market players, which is conducive to the recovery of the macro economy. At the same time, with the launch of various investment projects and the release of supporting funds, the construction of transportation, farmland water conservancy, energy and other fields has been effectively promoted, which directly benefits the operation and development of the machinery industry. However, it should be noted that the domestic market cycle has not yet been fully formed, the global epidemic situation is still uncertain, the international economic and trade situation is becoming more complex, and the machinery industry is still under tremendous pressure to achieve steady economic growth throughout the year. In June, the machinery industry operation trend index was only 94.28, still below the critical value, indicating that the downward pressure on the industry is significant.
The analysis of the development of the main sub-sectors of the machinery industry in the second half of the year is as follows:
Automobile industry: As the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation continues to improve, driven by a series of favorable policies by the national and local governments, the consumer market has rebounded, and the automobile industry production and sales will continue to rise; but the spread of the overseas epidemic has also increased the supply of some auto parts risk. It is expected that if the overseas epidemic can be effectively controlled in the second half of the year, the production and sales of my country's auto market will drop by about 10% year-on-year.
Electrical and electrical appliances industry: Benefiting from the policies and measures introduced by the state, the construction and investment of some thermal power, hydropower, wind power and photovoltaic power projects have been initiated. Power grid companies have increased their power grid investment and played an active role in stabilizing the production and operation of the electrical and electrical industry. effect. However, the spread of the overseas epidemic has a very prominent impact on international cooperation, with the most obvious obstacles to project negotiations, on-site installation, material imports, and international transportation. It is expected that the electrical and electrical industry will operate relatively smoothly throughout the year, and operating income will maintain a small increase.
Petrochemical general equipment industry: The spread of the epidemic in the first half of the year was superimposed by the impact of the downturn in international oil prices, and the petroleum and petrochemical equipment market was sluggish. With the return of oil prices in the second half of the year, the operation of the industry will improve, but the main economic indicators for the whole year will be lower than the previous year.
Heavy mining industry: Due to the good ordering situation of enterprises at the end of last year, despite the impact of the epidemic, most of the enterprises' contracts in hand can meet the annual production targets. If there is no major epidemic and trade fluctuations in the second half of the year, it is expected to maintain a certain degree of growth throughout the year.
Machine tool industry: The machine tool industry is still in a critical period of transformation and upgrading, and market demand is also fluctuating. Since the second quarter, the decline in the main economic indicators of the machine tool industry has significantly narrowed. It is expected that in the second half of the year, as various policy measures gradually take effect, the development trend of the industry will change to some extent, but it is still showing a downward trend, and the decline is expected to narrow.
Agricultural machinery industry: With the support of relevant national policies, the agricultural machinery industry has shown a trend of growth against the trend. It is expected that the economic operation of the agricultural machinery industry throughout the year will be better than in 2019, and the growth rate will exceed the previous two years.
Construction machinery industry: The market demand continues to be high, and the industry operation situation is better than expected, but exports are facing certain pressure. It is expected that the construction machinery industry will maintain a certain degree of growth throughout the year.
Comprehensive analysis shows that in view of the basic restoration of the production and operation order of machinery industry enterprises since the second quarter, major economic indicators have achieved a substantial rebound; the industry development environment in the second half of the year is generally improving, and the above-mentioned major sub-sectors, which account for more than 80% of the machinery industry, tend to improve. It is expected that the economic operation of the machinery industry throughout the year will show a trend of gradual recovery. The industrial added value, operating income, total profit and other indicators are expected to achieve a small positive growth.
This year is the final year of building a well-off society in an all-round way and the "13th Five-Year Plan". Facing the complicated and severe economic situation, let us strengthen our confidence, take the initiative, resolutely implement the various decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee, and strive to promote the stability of the industry Operate, strive to complete the development goals, and make sufficient preparations for the good start of the "14th Five-Year Plan".
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